Francisco Mafla Hernandez

Freight Trip Generation Modeling for Large Facilities in Urban Areas

Francisco Javier Mafla-Hernández, Carlos A. Gonzalez-Calderon, John Jairo Posada-Henao

Published in: Transportation Policy, 2025

DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.008

Abstract

This paper addresses a significant gap in the literature regarding freight trip generation in Large Freight Trip Generators (LFTGs) in urban areas and emerging countries. We employ a comprehensive approach using linear and nonlinear models and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques to provide insights into various types of urban generators, including universities, firms, shopping centers, and markets.

Our research aims to enhance the understanding of trip generation patterns in these diverse LFTG contexts within a framework of modeling and application in public policies. The freight trip generation models were estimated by analyzing the variables associated with the production and attraction of freight trips in an LFTG. The variables used were specific to the type of establishment, such as the number of employees, the area and extent of the commercial premises, hotels, and universities, and the number of rooms and students, respectively.

The 2018 Freight Transportation Study of the Medellin Metropolitan Area (Colombia) played a crucial role in our research, providing the data necessary to estimate 108 models explaining freight trip generation in large facilities across seven categories: universities, hotels, firms, shopping centers, hospitals, buildings, and markets.

The results can aid in planning LFTG infrastructure in cities, facilitate vehicle emission analysis, and support decision-making by considering multiple methods for planning, making informed decisions, and opening avenues for further research. Additionally, indicators can be created to align with urban norms in city plans; for example, this research proposes an indicator for the urban planning of LFTGs in cities, which can be continuously measured and evaluated alongside the analysis of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ).

This study is the first in South America and opens the door to logistical planning within Latin American cities for LFTGs.

Keywords

Large freight traffic generators (LFTG), Freight trip generation (FTG), Freight demand modeling, Large facilities, Emissions

Key Highlights

• Freight Trip Generation (FTG) for large traffic urban generators in emerging countries.
• Uses data from a 2018 freight study in Medellín to estimate 108 models.
• Simple linear models outperformed multiple regression models.
• Provides analytical tools for better freight transportation planning.
• Insights into urban freight policies for growing cities.